000
WTPZ25 KNHC 040832
TCMEP5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152008
0900 UTC SAT OCT 04 2008
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  98.8W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  98.8W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  98.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N  99.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.8N  99.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  35SE  35SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.9N 100.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 14.1N 101.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 15.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  45SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 16.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  98.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN