000
WTPZ24 KNHC 110831
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
0900 UTC MON JUL 11 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.5W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 124.5W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 123.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.1N 126.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  10SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.7N 127.9W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.5N 129.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  20SE  15SW  35NW.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 131.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 135.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 21.5N 144.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 124.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN