000
WTPZ24 KNHC 102044
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
2100 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE  70SE  40SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 122.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 121.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.1N 124.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  50SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.3N 126.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.6N 130.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.5N 133.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 20.2N 137.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 21.1N 142.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 122.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART