000
WTPZ24 KNHC 100836
TCMEP4

TROPICAL STORM CELIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042016
0900 UTC SUN JUL 10 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT.......100NE   0SE   0SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 119.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 119.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE  30SE  30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  50SE  50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.1N 126.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.6N 128.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.5N 131.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  70SE  70SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 19.7N 135.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 21.0N 139.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN