000
WTPZ24 KNHC 272038
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
2100 UTC TUE SEP 27 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.1W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......105NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 117.1W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 116.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 17.5N 117.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 19.4N 118.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.7N 118.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 118.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 25.0N 118.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 26.0N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 117.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN