000
WTPZ24 KNHC 252036
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
2100 UTC SUN SEP 25 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.3W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  45SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 110.3W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.3N 113.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 114.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  75SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 19.7N 116.2W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  75SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.1N 115.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 110.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART