000
WTPZ24 KNHC 242039
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
2100 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 107.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.1N 109.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.2N 111.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 17.3N 113.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  75SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 19.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 106.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART