000
WTPZ24 KNHC 241455
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
1500 UTC SAT SEP 24 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.2W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  946 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.2W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 107.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.3N 109.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 17.5N 110.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE  75SE  75SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 17.6N 112.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 105SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 19.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 21.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART