000
WTPZ24 KNHC 232042
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
2100 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
NONE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 103.1W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   5 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 103.1W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 102.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 104.4W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.8N 106.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 17.3N 109.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 19.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 103.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER HSM FORECASTER