000
WTPZ24 KNHC 231450
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN
PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN COAST HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED BY
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
NONE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 102.5W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN   6 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 102.5W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 102.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.2N 103.8W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 105.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 107.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 17.4N 108.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...105NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 18.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 105SE  90SW 105NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 102.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART