000
WTPZ24 KNHC 230851
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
0900 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.9W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  55SE  40SW  65NW.
12 FT SEAS..130NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.9W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 101.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 103.2W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.5N 104.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 106.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  85SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.2N 107.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 17.9N 111.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  55SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...115NE 100SE  85SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 18.8N 113.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 101.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN