000
WTPZ24 KNHC 230239
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
0300 UTC FRI SEP 23 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 100.8W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  55SE  40SW  65NW.
12 FT SEAS..110NE 150SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 100.8W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 100.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.4N 102.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 104.0W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  15SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 107.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...105NE  85SE  75SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 18.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  55NW.
34 KT...105NE  85SE  75SW 105NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 20.0N 115.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 100.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA