000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221432 TCMEP4 HURRICANE HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092011 1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.9W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 35NE 25SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 65NE 50SE 35SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.9W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.6N 100.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 16.2N 102.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.7N 103.9W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 45NE 35SE 25SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.1N 105.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 111.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 19.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 98.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH