000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220855
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
0900 UTC THU SEP 22 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
LAZARO CARDENAS TO PUNTA SAN TELMO TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO MANZANILLO
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  98.1W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N  98.1W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N  97.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 15.2N  99.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.9N 101.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.4N 102.9W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.9N 104.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N  98.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN