000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220240
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
0300 UTC THU SEP 22 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING...AND HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA MEXICO WESTWARD TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF LAZARO CARDENAS TO MANZANILLO
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  97.2W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  90SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  97.2W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N  96.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.7N  98.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.2N  99.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.8N 101.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 16.5N 103.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 18.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.0N 113.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  97.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA