000
WTPZ24 KNHC 212032
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
2100 UTC WED SEP 21 2011
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA WESTWARD TO LAZARO
CARDENAS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  96.6W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE   0SE   0SW  35NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  96.6W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N  96.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.3N  97.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.9N  98.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.6N 100.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  55SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 16.2N 102.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 55NE  45SE  35SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.4N 106.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE  90SE  80SW 110NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 112.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N  96.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH