000
WTPZ24 KNHC 211435
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL STORM HILARY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
1500 UTC WED SEP 21 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  96.8W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N  96.8W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N  96.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.9N  97.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 14.5N  98.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 65NE  50SE  25SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 15.1N 100.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 15.7N 101.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 85NE  70SE  55SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.8N 105.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 108.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 112.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N  96.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI