000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210847
TCMEP4
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP092011
0900 UTC WED SEP 21 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNING IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  96.5W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N  96.5W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N  96.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 13.6N  97.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  25SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 14.1N  98.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE   0SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 14.6N  99.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 16.2N 104.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  30SE  20SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 18.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N  96.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN