000 WTPZ24 KNHC 222053 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 2100 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.9W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 109.9W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 109.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.8W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.4N 112.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.4N 113.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 23.5N 114.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 25.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 27.0N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 109.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN