000 WTPZ24 KNHC 221430 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1500 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W AT 22/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 150SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 109.4W AT 22/1500Z AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.0N 111.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.5W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 23.1N 113.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 26.5N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.3N 109.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN