000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220847
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
0900 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.8W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 108.8W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 108.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.4N 111.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.5N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 26.0N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 27.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 108.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART