000
WTPZ24 KNHC 220247
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
0300 UTC FRI JUL 22 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA
FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM AGUA BLANCA TO BUENAVISTA INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.1W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 210SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 108.1W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 107.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 21.1N 111.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 24.0N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 26.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 27.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 108.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH