000
WTPZ24 KNHC 211438
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
1500 UTC THU JUL 21 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.9W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  929 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 200SE 160SW 220NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 106.9W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.1N 108.0W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
50 KT... 75NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.8N 111.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.4N 117.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 26.0N 120.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE