000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210850
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
0900 UTC THU JUL 21 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.1W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  942 MB
EYE DIAMETER  20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 106.1W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 105.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 107.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.5N 109.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.3N 111.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 21.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 23.5N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 25.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 106.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI