000
WTPZ24 KNHC 210244
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
0300 UTC THU JUL 21 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 105.4W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 104.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.0N 106.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.2N 108.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.1N 109.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 19.9N 110.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 23.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 25.0N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 105.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN