000
WTPZ24 KNHC 202036
TCMEP4
 
HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042011
2100 UTC WED JUL 20 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.2W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 104.2W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 103.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.7N 107.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.7N 108.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE  35SE  30SW  40NW.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 19.6N 109.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 22.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 24.5N 119.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 104.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN