000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201440 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N 104.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.3N 108.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 109.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 201440 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 1500 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W AT 20/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 200SE 120SW 160NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 103.0W AT 20/1500Z AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 102.3W FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.9N 104.6W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.1N 106.5W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 18.3N 108.0W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 45SE 35SW 45NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 19.3N 109.2W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 20.8N 111.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 90SE 75SW 110NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 22.5N 115.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 24.0N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 103.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/BEVEN