000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200846 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.1N 103.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 105.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 107.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 108.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200846 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 0900 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW. 34 KT.......120NE 110SE 50SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 101.6W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 101.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 15.1N 103.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.4N 105.5W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 45SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.5N 107.1W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 55SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.6N 108.4W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 20.5N 110.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z 22.5N 113.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 24.0N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 101.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN