000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200241 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 99.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 200241 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042011 0300 UTC WED JUL 20 2011 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FROM LAZARO CARDENAS WESTWARD TO CABO CORRIENTES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * LAZARO CARDENAS TO CABO CORRIENTES A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB EYE DIAMETER 25 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 99.9W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 99.3W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 14.4N 101.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 15.7N 104.1W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 110NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 105.8W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...130NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.9N 107.2W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 75NW. 34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 20.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z 22.0N 112.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 115.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 99.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN