000
WTPZ24 KNHC 132033
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2009
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 126.1W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  60SE  30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 126.1W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.5N 125.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z  9.5N 127.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z  9.7N 130.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 10.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 10.4N 134.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 11.0N 138.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 11.5N 144.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 11.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N 126.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG