000
WTPZ24 KNHC 042036
TCMEP4
TROPICAL STORM MARIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142008
2100 UTC SAT OCT 04 2008
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 122.2W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 45NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 122.2W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 122.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N 122.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.8N 123.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.9N 123.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N 127.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 18.0N 129.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 17.5N 130.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 122.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE