000
WTPZ24 KNHC 291432
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
1500 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.7W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 111.7W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 16.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 16.9N 113.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  35SE  20SW  35NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 18.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.9N 115.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.7N 115.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 20.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 118.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N 111.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/AVILA