000
WTPZ24 KNHC 290859
TCMEP4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142007
0900 UTC SAT SEP 29 2007
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.1W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 111.1W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 110.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 15.6N 112.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 17.8N 114.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 19.0N 114.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.0N 115.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.0N 116.5W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 111.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB