000
WTPZ24 KNHC 110849
TCMEP4
HURRICANE FLOSSIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092007
0900 UTC SAT AUG 11 2007
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.3W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.3W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 138.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 12.9N 141.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 13.3N 143.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 13.8N 145.6W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 14.4N 148.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.5N 152.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  60SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 17.0N 156.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.5N 159.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 139.3W
 
THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM.  FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII.
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI