000
WTPZ23 KNHC 161450
TCMEP3

HURRICANE KIKO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE  90SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 123.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE  10SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 16.9N 126.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.7N 127.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 129.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 130.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 17.3N 132.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 123.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE