000
WTPZ23 KNHC 121450
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.1W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  40SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CHENARD/BLAKE