000
WTPZ23 KNHC 152050
TCMEP3

HURRICANE CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
2100 UTC MON JUN 15 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
EAST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE  20SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 103.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.3N 103.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 18.6N 105.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 15NE  15SE  15SW  15NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.5N 105.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 21.0N 106.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 22.0N 106.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 103.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART