000
WTPZ23 KNHC 151439
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1500 UTC MON JUN 15 2015
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING
EAST OF LAZARO CARDENAS AND HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF PUNTA SAN TELMO TO PLAYA PERULA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA SAN TELMO TO LAZARO CARDENAS
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.5W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  30SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 102.5W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 102.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.3N 103.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.8N 104.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.4N 105.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 19.4N 105.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 21.2N 106.1W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 22.8N 106.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 102.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART