000
WTPZ23 KNHC 120849
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
0900 UTC FRI JUN 12 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ACAPULCO TO ZIHUATANEJO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  70SE  60SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE  75SE  75SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 100.8W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 100.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 14.9N 100.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  80SE  70SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.1N 101.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE  80SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.3N 101.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.6N 101.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  90NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 103.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 18.2N 106.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 100.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI