000
WTPZ23 KNHC 111439
TCMEP3
 
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1500 UTC THU JUN 11 2015
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 100.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 100.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 100.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.0N 100.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 14.2N 100.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 14.4N 100.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 14.7N 100.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 15.6N 101.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 104.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 17.7N 106.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 100.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA