000 WTPZ23 KNHC 181440 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2013 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MEXICO FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO SAN EVARISTO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 107.8W AT 18/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 107.8W AT 18/1500Z AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 107.8W FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 107.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN