000 WTPZ23 KNHC 160837 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 0900 UTC SAT JUN 16 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 30SE 25SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 50SE 50SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 80SE 70SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 120SE 90SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 98.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 97.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 17.1N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 70SE 60SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 17.6N 99.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 100.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.7N 100.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 17.4N 100.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 17.4N 99.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 17.4N 99.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 98.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART