000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142032 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 2100 UTC THU JUN 14 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM SALINA CRUZ TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO EAST OF SALINA CRUZ TO BARRA DE TONALA * THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF PUNTA MALDONADO TO ACAPULCO INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO WEST OF ACAPULCO TO CABO CORRIENTES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF CARLOTTA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 94.2W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 45NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 94.2W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 93.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.9N 95.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.2N 96.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.3N 97.3W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.1N 98.4W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 16.5N 100.0W...NEAR COAST MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 100.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.5N 99.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 94.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN