000 WTPZ23 KNHC 140834 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032012 0900 UTC THU JUN 14 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * BARRA DE TONALA TO PUNTA MALDONADO A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 93.3W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 93.3W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.9N 93.0W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 11.4N 94.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 12.8N 95.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.3N 96.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.5N 97.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.6N 99.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.8N 100.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.3N 100.0W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.3N 93.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART