000
WTPZ23 KNHC 311434
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
1500 UTC MON AUG 31 2009
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF BAHIA
MAGDALENA ON THE WEST COAST TO PUNTA ABREOJOS AND NORTH OF SAN
EVARISTO TO MULEGE ON THE EAST COAST.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND IN
WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JIMENA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.3W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 180SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 108.3W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 108.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 19.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 21.0N 110.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 23.0N 111.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 25.0N 111.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 27.6N 112.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 29.0N 113.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 30.0N 114.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 108.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH