000
WTPZ23 KNHC 310844
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
0900 UTC MON AUG 31 2009
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST
COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS.  A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.  A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THIS AREA LATER
TODAY.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND IN WESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF JIMENA.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER THIS MORNING.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.9W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 155 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 70NE  65SE  55SW  65NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 150SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 107.9W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 107.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 18.5N 108.7W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 45NE  40SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 20.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 155 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 55NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 22.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...105NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 24.1N 111.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  45SW  60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 105NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.2N 112.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  20SW  35NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 28.5N 113.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 29.5N 114.0W...REMNANT LOW INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 107.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN