000
WTPZ23 KNHC 291444
TCMEP3
HURRICANE JIMENA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP132009
1500 UTC SAT AUG 29 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 25NE  20SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 103.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 102.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.6N 104.4W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 15.0N 105.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  45SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 15.6N 106.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  35SW  60NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 16.7N 108.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 65NE  65SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  75SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 19.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
34 KT...135NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 22.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 25.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 103.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE