000
WTPZ23 KNHC 080838
TCMEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
0900 UTC SAT AUG 08 2009
 
INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 139.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  75SE  65SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 139.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 138.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.3N 141.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  65SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.5N 143.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  85NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.6N 146.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  25SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.5N 154.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  25SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.5N 159.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 20.0N 165.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 139.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA