000
WTPZ23 KNHC 072031
TCMEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
2100 UTC FRI AUG 07 2009
 
INTERESTS IN HAWAII SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FELICIA.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 136.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 136.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 136.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 138.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.3N 141.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
50 KT... 45NE  35SE  35SW  45NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.5N 143.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 146.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 152.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 157.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 19.5N 163.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 136.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE