000
WTPZ23 KNHC 070834
TCMEP3
HURRICANE FELICIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP082009
0900 UTC FRI AUG 07 2009
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 134.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  960 MB
EYE DIAMETER  10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE  35SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT.......105NE 120SE  75SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 120SE  75SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 134.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 134.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 135.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 137.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.4N 140.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 45NE  45SE  25SW  35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 105SE  60SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 142.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 19.5N 148.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  25NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 19.0N 153.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 19.0N 159.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 134.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/AVILA